The fracturing of the Western alliance could destabilise the Balkans. The region has two still unfinished issues: Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kosovo’s statehood and independence is irreversible and it has greatly stabilised the region, but the issue of North Kosovo inhabited by a Serb majority has the potential to destabilise Kosovo and therefore all the region. Serbia hasn’t relinquished its real aim to annex north Kosovo because this is the only way that it could revindicate some of its perceived historical rights over Kosovo according to the Serbian narrative. With a new American administration should is slowly changing course towards the protection of Europe, small countries could probably suffer.
The same thing could happen in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is a non-functioning country, inhabited by three nationalities of Muslim Bosniaks, Orthodox Serbs and Catholic Croats which don’t see each other living in the same state for longer. The current international situation has the potential to divide Bosnia and Herzegovina along ethnic lines and remake the map of the Balkans. Trump’s approach towards Russia makes it a winner in the war in Ukraine because it is fulfilling most of its objectives and conditions in Ukraine and therefore a stronger Russia emerging in this new world order has the potential to better support its allies in the Balkans like Serbia and Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina to achieve their goals too: annexing North Kosovo and dividing Bosnia and Herzegovina along ethnic lines.
How does all of this affect the region’s future? How does all of this affect investments in the Balkans? Contact us to understand better the geopolitical developments in the region and how they can affect the future of investments, economy and finance in the region.
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